Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Catalent, Inc. (NYSE:CTLT) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Catalent
What Is Catalent's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2022, Catalent had US$4.56b of debt, up from US$4.03b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have US$470.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$4.09b.
How Healthy Is Catalent's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Catalent had liabilities of US$1.53b due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.71b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$470.0m in cash and US$1.41b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$4.35b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Catalent is worth US$8.87b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Catalent's debt is 3.7 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.9 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Unfortunately, Catalent saw its EBIT slide 9.8% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Catalent can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Catalent burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
We'd go so far as to say Catalent's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. Having said that, its ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT isn't such a worry. We're quite clear that we consider Catalent to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 4 warning signs with Catalent (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:CTLT
Catalent
Develops and manufactures solutions for drugs, protein-based biologics, cell and gene therapies, and consumer health products worldwide.
Fair value with moderate growth potential.