Analysts Are Updating Their Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XERS) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

There's been a major selloff in Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XERS) shares in the week since it released its annual report, with the stock down 26% to US$2.35. Xeris Biopharma Holdings reported revenues of US$164m, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$0.45 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Xeris Biopharma Holdings after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Xeris Biopharma Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Xeris Biopharma Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of US$185.0m in 2024. This reflects a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 11% from last year to US$0.39. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$184.1m and losses of US$0.27 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Xeris Biopharma Holdings even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a sizeable expansion in per-share losses.

The consensus price target held steady at US$4.70, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Xeris Biopharma Holdings at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Xeris Biopharma Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 63% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Xeris Biopharma Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Xeris Biopharma Holdings. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$4.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Xeris Biopharma Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Xeris Biopharma Holdings (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.