The Verve Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VERV) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

As you might know, Verve Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VERV) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. Results clearly exceeded expectations, with a substantial revenue beat leading to smaller losses in what looks like a definite win for investors. Revenues were US$5.7m and the statutory loss per share was US$0.59, smaller than the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Verve Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Verve Therapeutics, is for revenues of US$11.2m in 2024. This implies a sizeable 30% reduction in Verve Therapeutics' revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are supposed to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$2.70. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$13.0m and losses of US$2.93 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$31.00, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Verve Therapeutics at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 38% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 128% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. It's pretty clear that Verve Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Verve Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Verve Therapeutics (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.