UroGen Pharma Ltd. (NASDAQ:URGN) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

It's been a sad week for UroGen Pharma Ltd. (NASDAQ:URGN), who've watched their investment drop 20% to US$14.46 in the week since the company reported its yearly result. Revenues came in at US$83m, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$3.55 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on UroGen Pharma after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for UroGen Pharma

Following the latest results, UroGen Pharma's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$101.7m in 2024. This would be a sizeable 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.60 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$106.9m and losses of US$2.66 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$38.50, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values UroGen Pharma at US$54.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$18.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that UroGen Pharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 23% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 58% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that UroGen Pharma is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at UroGen Pharma. They also downgraded UroGen Pharma's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$38.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple UroGen Pharma analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for UroGen Pharma (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.