Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their UroGen Pharma Ltd. (NASDAQ:URGN) Price Target To US$32.63

It's shaping up to be a tough period for UroGen Pharma Ltd. (NASDAQ:URGN), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It looks like a pretty negative result overall with revenues of US$20m coming in 11% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$0.92 per share, 18% larger than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the eight analysts covering UroGen Pharma are now predicting revenues of US$119.7m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 4.6% to US$2.87 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$121.7m and losses of US$2.77 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on UroGen Pharma after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for UroGen Pharma

The consensus price target fell 6.4% to US$32.63per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values UroGen Pharma at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 42% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 37% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 17% annually. So it's pretty clear that UroGen Pharma is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for UroGen Pharma going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for UroGen Pharma (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.