Results: TG Therapeutics, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

The investors in TG Therapeutics, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TGTX) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 29% to US$17.22 in the week following its full-year results. Revenues were US$234m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.09 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 13%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for TG Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from TG Therapeutics' eight analysts is for revenues of US$261.6m in 2024. This would reflect a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 49% to US$0.046 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$264.7m and losses of US$0.10 per share in 2024. Although we saw no serious change to the revenue outlook, the analysts have definitely increased their earnings estimates, estimating a profit next year, compared to previous forecasts of a loss. So it seems like the consensus has become substantially more bullish on TG Therapeutics.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$29.75, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values TG Therapeutics at US$45.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TG Therapeutics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 97% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than TG Therapeutics.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been a clear step-change in belief around the business' prospects, with the analysts now expecting TG Therapeutics to become profitable next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that TG Therapeutics' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$29.75, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TG Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for TG Therapeutics that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.