Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:TARS) Reported Earnings Last Week And Analysts Are Already Upgrading Their Estimates

As you might know, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:TARS) just kicked off its latest annual results with some very strong numbers. Overall results were decent, with revenues of US$17m beating estimates by80%. Statutory losses were subsequently less thanthe analysts had expected, at US$4.62 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' five analysts is for revenues of US$96.6m in 2024. This reflects a substantial 454% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$4.55 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$62.3m and losses of US$5.04 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

The consensus price target rose 11% to US$49.38, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$65.00 and the most bearish at US$30.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5x annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 23% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.0% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Tarsus Pharmaceuticals to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tarsus Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.