Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX): Valuation Check After Encouraging TUPELO Trial Data and Analyst Upgrades

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) just put fresh clinical data on the table, and that is what has traders paying attention. The new TUPELO trial update for REC-4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis could reshape expectations around this AI driven pipeline.

See our latest analysis for Recursion Pharmaceuticals.

Even with the upbeat TUPELO data and a wave of bullish commentary on its AI driven platform, Recursion’s 1 month share price return of 6.7% comes against a much weaker year to date share price return and a 1 year total shareholder return of negative 27.1%. This suggests sentiment is only cautiously rebuilding around the story.

If this kind of clinical momentum has you rethinking the space, it could be worth scanning other potential winners across healthcare stocks to see how they stack up on growth, risk, and valuation.

With the stock still trading well below consensus targets despite rapid revenue growth and fresh TUPELO momentum, should investors view Recursion as a discounted AI biotech in transition, or has the market already priced in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 36.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative pegs Recursion’s fair value around 7 dollars per share, comfortably above the 4.44 dollars last close, framing today’s TUPELO buzz inside a much bigger long term rerating story.

Automated, data driven approaches to drug discovery and clinical development are addressing industry wide needs to decrease development timelines and costs, positioning Recursion to capitalize on the pharma industry's widespread shift toward AI based R&D potentially leading to greater market share and improved long term earnings power.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how that vision turns into numbers? The narrative leans on breakneck revenue expansion, a dramatic margin swing, and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for market darlings. Want to see which assumptions do the heavy lifting in that 7 dollar fair value call?

Result: Fair Value of $7 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the story can unravel if key pharma partners pull back or if cash burn forces heavy dilution before TUPELO and other programs fully mature.

Find out about the key risks to this Recursion Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own Recursion Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Recursion Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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