NasdaqGS:CERT

Stock Analysis Report

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Market Cap

US$3.9b

Last Updated

2021/07/23 01:48 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Executive Summary

Certara Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinincal and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. More Details

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 83.68% per year

Revenue grew by 16.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for CERT from our risk checks.


Snowflake Analysis

Adequate balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Certara's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: CERT is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CERT's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

5.1%

CERT

3.6%

US Healthcare Services

0.4%

US Market


1 Year Return

n/a

CERT

14.5%

US Healthcare Services

36.9%

US Market

Return vs Industry: Insufficient data to determine how CERT performed against the US Healthcare Services industry.

Return vs Market: Insufficient data to determine how CERT performed against the US Market.


Shareholder returns

CERTIndustryMarket
7 Day5.1%3.6%0.4%
30 Day-5.3%-2.4%1.6%
90 Day-17.4%-1.7%2.7%
1 Yearn/a14.7%14.5%39.1%36.9%
3 Yearn/a120.3%118.5%61.0%51.0%
5 Yearn/a207.7%203.7%122.5%97.8%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Certara's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Certara undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

4.75x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: CERT ($25.71) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($9.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CERT is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: CERT is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Healthcare Services industry average.

PE vs Market: CERT is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CERT's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: CERT is good value based on its PB Ratio (4.8x) compared to the US Healthcare Services industry average (6.5x).


Future Growth

How is Certara forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

83.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CERT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: CERT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: CERT's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CERT's revenue (14.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (9.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CERT's revenue (14.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CERT's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (2.7%).


Past Performance

How has Certara performed over the past 5 years?

-686.2%

Last years earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CERT is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: CERT is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if CERT's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CERT's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: CERT is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Healthcare Services industry (28.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: CERT has a negative Return on Equity (-5.97%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Financial Health

How is Certara's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CERT's short term assets ($347.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($63.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: CERT's short term assets ($347.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($372.0M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CERT's debt to equity ratio (36.4%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if CERT's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable CERT has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: CERT is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, due to free cash flow being positive and growing by 57.4% per year.


Dividend

What is Certara current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CERT's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CERT's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CERT's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CERT's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of CERT's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Bill Feehery (50 yo)

2.08yrs

Tenure

US$3,626,241

Compensation

Dr. William F. Feehery, also known as Bill, Ph.D., has served as Chief Executive Officer of the Certara, Inc. and Certara Holdco since June 03, 2019. He serves as a Director at Certara, Inc. He has been th...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Bill's total compensation ($USD3.63M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.29M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Bill's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CERT's management team is considered experienced (2.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: CERT's board of directors are considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: CERT only recently listed within the past 12 months.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Certara, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Certara, Inc.
  • Ticker: CERT
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 2008
  • Industry: Health Care Technology
  • Sector: Healthcare
  • Market Cap: US$3.933b
  • Shares outstanding: 152.98m
  • Website: https://www.certara.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Certara, Inc.
  • 100 Overlook Center
  • Suite 101
  • Princeton
  • New Jersey
  • 8540
  • United States

Listings


Biography

Certara Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinincal and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It o...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/07/23 01:48
End of Day Share Price2021/07/22 00:00
Earnings2021/03/31
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.