REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Earnings missed the mark, with revenues of US$16m falling badly (31%) short of expectations. Losses were mildly higher, with a US$1.38 per-share loss being 8.9% above what the analysts modelled. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for REGENXBIO

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from REGENXBIO's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$117.9m in 2024. This would reflect a sizeable 36% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$4.89. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$134.4m and US$4.12 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$39.33, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on REGENXBIO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$55.00 and the most bearish at US$21.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting REGENXBIO's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 51% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 15% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 19% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect REGENXBIO to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded REGENXBIO's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$39.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for REGENXBIO going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for REGENXBIO that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.