Earnings Update: REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) Just Reported Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. It looks like a pretty negative result overall with revenues of US$90m coming in 16% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$6.02 per share, 14% larger than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for REGENXBIO

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering REGENXBIO are now predicting revenues of US$157.8m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 75% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 40% to US$3.54. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$160.5m and US$2.93 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$36.00, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values REGENXBIO at US$52.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that REGENXBIO's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 75% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 16% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that REGENXBIO is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at REGENXBIO. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$36.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for REGENXBIO going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for REGENXBIO you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.