Repligen Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Repligen Corporation (NASDAQ:RGEN) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.04, some 47% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$151m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Repligen after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Repligen

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Repligen's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$638.2m in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 107% to US$0.55. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$637.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.53 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Repligen's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$205, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Repligen analyst has a price target of US$225 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$170. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Repligen is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Repligen's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 23% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Repligen's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Repligen following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Repligen analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Repligen you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.