Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.7% to US$35.98 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenues of US$139m came in 3.6% below estimates, but statutory losses were slightly better than expected, at US$1.57 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$649.5m in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 10.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 11% from last year to US$5.16. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$655.8m and losses of US$5.21 per share in 2025.

See our latest analysis for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$90.15, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$136 and the most bearish at US$39.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 17% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$90.15, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.