uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year

The analysts covering uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the latest downgrade, the 15 analysts covering uniQure provided consensus estimates of US$87m revenue in 2023, which would reflect a painful 21% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$4.73 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$136m and US$3.75 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

View our latest analysis for uniQure

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €48.42, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values uniQure at €90.20 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €24.01. With such a wide range in price targets, the analysts are almost certainly betting on widely diverse outcomes for the underlying business. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 26% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 50% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 19% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - uniQure is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that uniQure's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on uniQure after the downgrade.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple uniQure analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.