News Flash: 15 Analysts Think uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) Earnings Are Under Threat

The analysts covering uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon. The stock price has risen 5.4% to US$20.96 over the past week. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.

Following the downgrade, the current consensus from uniQure's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$141m in 2023 which - if met - would reflect a sizeable 32% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 26% to US$3.41 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$205m and losses of US$1.16 per share in 2023. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

See our latest analysis for uniQure

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €49.58, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic uniQure analyst has a price target of €89.31 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €23.76. With such a wide range in price targets, the analysts are almost certainly betting on widely diverse outcomes for the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that uniQure's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 32% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 58% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 15% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that uniQure is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of uniQure.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for uniQure going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.