Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTLA) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTLA), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its second-quarter results last week. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 64% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$1.52. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Intellia Therapeutics after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Intellia Therapeutics

Following the latest results, Intellia Therapeutics' 25 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$57.9m in 2024. This would be a sizeable 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$5.30. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$68.5m and losses of US$5.12 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$70.41, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Intellia Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$144 and the most bearish at US$24.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Intellia Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 58% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.8% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Intellia Therapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Intellia Therapeutics. They also downgraded Intellia Therapeutics' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Intellia Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Intellia Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Intellia Therapeutics you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.