Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR) Analysts Are More Bearish Than They Used To Be

Market forces rained on the parade of Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business. Surprisingly the share price has been buoyant, rising 18% to US$0.71 in the past 7 days. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.

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Following the downgrade, the consensus from eight analysts covering Nektar Therapeutics is for revenues of US$40m in 2025, implying a stressful 54% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.85 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$62m and US$0.66 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Nektar Therapeutics

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nektar Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Nektar Therapeutics' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 65% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 12% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 8.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Nektar Therapeutics to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. We wouldn't be surprised to find shareholders feeling a bit shell-shocked, after these downgrades. It looks like analysts have become a lot more bearish on Nektar Therapeutics, and their negativity could be grounds for caution.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Nektar Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.