Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) missed earnings with its latest annual results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Marinus Pharmaceuticals missed analyst estimates, with revenues of US$31m and a statutory loss per share (eps) of US$2.63 falling 2.9% and 4.0% below expectations, respectively. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Marinus Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Marinus Pharmaceuticals from eleven analysts is for revenues of US$40.5m in 2024. If met, it would imply a substantial 31% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 7.1% to US$2.41 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$42.7m and US$2.33 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on Marinus Pharmaceuticals after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$20.30, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Marinus Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Marinus Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 31% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 62% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Marinus Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Marinus Pharmaceuticals. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Marinus Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Marinus Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Marinus Pharmaceuticals that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.