While Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) shareholders have made 102% in 5 years, increasing losses might now be front of mind as stock sheds 5.8% this week

Some Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) shareholders are probably rather concerned to see the share price fall 39% over the last three months. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 102% in that time. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 58% decline over the last twelve months.

In light of the stock dropping 5.8% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

See our latest analysis for Moderna

Moderna isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

In the last 5 years Moderna saw its revenue grow at 23% per year. That's well above most pre-profit companies. Meanwhile, its share price performance certainly reflects the strong growth, given the share price grew at 15% per year, compound, during the period. This suggests the market has well and truly recognized the progress the business has made. Moderna seems like a high growth stock - so growth investors might want to add it to their watchlist.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

Moderna is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 25% in the last year, Moderna shareholders lost 58%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 15%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. If you would like to research Moderna in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.