Is Discontinuing the CMV Vaccine Changing the Investment Thesis for Moderna (MRNA)?

• Earlier this month, Moderna announced it would discontinue development of its experimental cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine after the Phase 3 trial failed to meet primary efficacy goals, achieving just 6% to 23% effectiveness in preventing infections among seronegative women of childbearing age.
• This outcome represents a considerable setback to one of Moderna's most-watched vaccine candidates and highlights the challenges of translating mRNA technology to complex viral targets beyond COVID-19.
• We'll now examine how halting the CMV program, previously a high-profile pipeline asset, may influence Moderna's broader investment case.

Explore 28 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.

Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

To have confidence as a Moderna shareholder, you need to believe the company can turn its mRNA research platform into profitable, diversified products beyond COVID-19 vaccines. While discontinuing the CMV program after Phase 3 failure is a setback, it does not materially affect the most critical short-term catalyst, stabilizing and growing respiratory vaccine revenues, or the top risk of revenue volatility from seasonal and declining COVID-19 demand.

Against this backdrop, Moderna’s recent FDA approval of its RSV vaccine stands out as particularly relevant, as it helps reinforce the company’s push to expand and de-risk its seasonal respiratory portfolio. This development could help offset some impact from pipeline disappointments, supporting the diversification investors are looking for in the years ahead.

However, investors should be aware that the persistent risk to earnings from lagging COVID-19 vaccine sales remains, especially as...

Read the full narrative on Moderna (it's free!)

Moderna's outlook anticipates $3.5 billion in revenue and $498.6 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on an assumed annual revenue growth rate of 4.6% and a $3.4 billion increase in earnings from current levels of -$2.9 billion.

Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $40.30 fair value, a 51% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates from 25 Simply Wall St Community members range from US$40.30 to US$175 per share. While opinions differ, potential for pipeline setbacks puts the company's long-term earnings stability in question, see what other investors expect.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on Moderna - why the stock might be worth over 6x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moderna's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Moderna?

Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they're targeting before they've flown the coop:

• Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 22 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.
• The end of cancer? These 27 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.
• These 15 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com