A Look at Moderna (MRNA) Valuation After mRNA-1647 Fails Key Phase III Trial

Moderna (MRNA) has decided to halt development of its mRNA-1647 vaccine after the late-stage Phase III CMVictory trial did not meet its efficacy goals for preventing congenital cytomegalovirus infection. This marks a setback for Moderna’s vaccine pipeline, as the candidate was among its most advanced assets.

See our latest analysis for Moderna.

Moderna’s vaccine disappointment follows a period of steep declines for shareholders, with the stock logging a year-to-date share price return of -39.64% and a one-year total shareholder return of -54.09%. The drop reflects shifting investor sentiment about near-term pipeline risks, even as Moderna continues to pursue new efforts in oncology and respiratory disease.

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With shares now trading at a steep discount to analyst price targets, the real question is whether Moderna is an overlooked value play or if today’s prices already reflect the company’s uncertain growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 37.1% Undervalued

Compared to Moderna’s last close at $25.35, the most widely followed narrative sees room for significant upside, indicating a fair value that sits notably higher. To understand what is driving this view, let’s turn to a key catalyst in the outlook.

Cost structure transformation, including significant workforce reductions, manufacturing and procurement efficiencies, and ongoing R&D prioritization, puts Moderna on course to more than halve operating expenses by 2027 and target cash breakeven by 2028. This is expected to drive considerable improvements in net margins and future earnings leverage.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know if slashing expenses and a dramatic margin turnaround can really justify that bullish fair value? The core of this narrative is a complete reset of Moderna’s financial engine, with future profit multiples reminiscent of fast-growth disruptors. Unpack the numbers that analysts believe could send the share price surging past current levels.

Result: Fair Value of $40.30 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent declines in vaccine sales and intensifying competition could easily undermine optimism about Moderna’s recovery. This situation casts doubt on forecasts for sustained growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Moderna narrative.

Another View: Multiples Tell a Different Story

Looking beyond fair value estimates, Moderna trades at a sales multiple of 3.2x. This is much lower than the US Biotechs industry average of 11.4x and the peer average of 24.9x, but it is notably higher than its own fair ratio of 1.2x. This suggests there is still valuation risk if the market focuses on its own fundamentals rather than broader industry appetite. Are shares truly cheap, or could there still be more room to fall?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive deeper into the numbers, you can craft your own Moderna narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Moderna.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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