Lumos Pharma (NasdaqGM:LUMO) - Share price, News & Analysis

LUMO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

LUMO Stock Overview

Lumos Pharma, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for rare diseases.

Rewards

Revenue is forecast to grow 86.41% per year

Risk Analysis

Makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($341K)

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Does not have a meaningful market cap ($65M)

Lumos Pharma Competitors

Decibel Therapeutics

NasdaqGS:DBTX

US$95.3m

Orgenesis

NasdaqCM:ORGS

US$62.5m

eFFECTOR Therapeutics

NasdaqCM:EFTR

US$60.9m

Molecular Templates

NasdaqGS:MTEM

US$55.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Lumos Pharma
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$7.71
52 Week High	US$11.52
52 Week Low	US$6.15
Beta	1.02
1 Month Change	-1.78%
3 Month Change	-17.98%
1 Year Change	-22.90%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-11.99%

Recent News & Updates

Mar 22

Here's Why We're Not Too Worried About Lumos Pharma's (NASDAQ:LUMO) Cash Burn Situation

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, biotech and...

Shareholder Returns

	LUMO	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	7.8%	3.8%	1.6%
1Y	-22.9%	-25.8%	-20.8%

Return vs Industry: LUMO exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned -26.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LUMO underperformed the US Market which returned -20.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LUMO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LUMO volatility
LUMO Average Weekly Movement	7.4%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	13.1%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: LUMO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LUMO's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	32	Rick Hawkins	https://www.lumos-pharma.com

Lumos Pharma, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for rare diseases. Its lead therapeutic candidate LUM-201 is an oral growth hormone secretagogue ibutamoren, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of pediatric growth hormone deficiency and other rare endocrine disorders. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Lumos Pharma Fundamentals Summary

How do Lumos Pharma's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LUMO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$64.53m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$29.52m
Revenue (TTM)	US$341.00k

189.2x

P/S Ratio

-2.2x

P/E Ratio

Is LUMO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LUMO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$341.00k
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$341.00k
Other Expenses	US$29.86m
Earnings	-US$29.52m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-3.53
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	-8,656.60%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did LUMO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is LUMO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUMO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for LUMO. This is calculated by dividing LUMO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is LUMO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$64.53m

LUMO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does LUMO's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

LUMO PB Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PB ratio for LUMO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.5x
DBTX Decibel Therapeutics	0.7x	-24.5%	US$95.3m
ORGS Orgenesis	1.8x	148.5%	US$62.5m
EFTR eFFECTOR Therapeutics	2.4x	-38.7%	US$60.9m
MTEM Molecular Templates	1.2x	-5.7%	US$55.0m
LUMO Lumos Pharma	0.8x	1.8%	US$64.5m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: LUMO is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUMO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: LUMO is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.6x)

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUMO's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUMO PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	0.8x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LUMO's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUMO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate LUMO's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate LUMO's fair value for valuation analysis.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LUMO's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Lumos Pharma forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

1.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LUMO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: LUMO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: LUMO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: LUMO's revenue (86.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LUMO's revenue (86.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LUMO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Lumos Pharma performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-31.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LUMO is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: LUMO is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LUMO is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 31% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare LUMO's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: LUMO is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (96.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: LUMO has a negative Return on Equity (-36.08%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Lumos Pharma's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LUMO's short term assets ($92.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: LUMO's short term assets ($92.6M) exceed its long term liabilities ($6.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LUMO is debt free.

Reducing Debt: LUMO had no debt 5 years ago.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: LUMO has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: LUMO has sufficient cash runway for 2.3 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 32% each year.

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Dividend

What is Lumos Pharma current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate LUMO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate LUMO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LUMO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LUMO's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as LUMO has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Rick Hawkins (72 yo)

11.42yrs

Tenure

US$1,353,439

Compensation

Mr. Richard J. Hawkins, also known as Rick, is the Founder of Lumos Pharma, Inc. and has been its Chairman of the Board since March 26, 2020, its Chief Executive Officer since January 2011 and served as it...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Rick's total compensation ($USD1.35M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD759.63K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Rick's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: LUMO's management team is considered experienced (2.2 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: LUMO's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/29 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/29 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31