Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To US$47.43

A week ago, Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) came out with a strong set of full-year numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues were better than expected, with US$79m in revenue some 13% ahead of forecasts. The company still lost US$2.52 per share, although the losses were marginally smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Kymera Therapeutics

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering Kymera Therapeutics is for revenues of US$50.5m in 2024. This implies a sizeable 36% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.33 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$52.1m and US$3.29 per share in losses.

The consensus price target rose 9.7% to US$47.43, seeming to imply that weaker revenue sentiment is not expected to have a major impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Kymera Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$112 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$26.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 36% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 31% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Kymera Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Kymera Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Kymera Therapeutics (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.