Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (NASDAQ:KNSA) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Investors in Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (NASDAQ:KNSA) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.4% to close at US$17.86 following the release of its quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$80m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.25 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals

Following the latest results, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$385.0m in 2024. This would be a sizeable 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.15 per share in 2024. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$383.0m and US$0.17 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals'future looks a little different to the past, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The average price target held steady at US$28.20, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 38% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 73% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.