Earnings Miss: Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ:JAZZ) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 16% to US$98.41. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$898m missing analyst predictions by 8.7%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$1.52 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jazz Pharmaceuticals from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$4.23b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$6.09 in 2025, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.51 in 2025. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Jazz Pharmaceuticals

The consensus price target held steady at US$184, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Jazz Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$230 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$125. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Jazz Pharmaceuticals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Jazz Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Jazz Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Jazz Pharmaceuticals dropped from profits to a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Jazz Pharmaceuticals' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$184, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jazz Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Jazz Pharmaceuticals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Jazz Pharmaceuticals you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.