The Impel Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:IMPL) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for Impel Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:IMPL) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 15% to US$1.11. The results overall were pretty much dead in line with analyst forecasts; revenues were US$13m and statutory losses were US$4.53 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Impel Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Impel Pharmaceuticals' three analysts is for revenues of US$33.4m in 2023, which would reflect a substantial 164% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 53% to US$2.10. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$35.6m and US$2.27 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$15.33, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Impel Pharmaceuticals at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Impel Pharmaceuticals' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 164% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 130% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Impel Pharmaceuticals to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Impel Pharmaceuticals going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 6 warning signs for Impel Pharmaceuticals (2 make us uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.