Immunocore Holdings plc (NASDAQ:IMCR) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Immunocore Holdings plc (NASDAQ:IMCR) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.1% to US$58.95 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$89m crushed expectations, although expenses also blew out, with the company reporting a statutory loss per share of US$0.62, 62% bigger than analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Immunocore Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Immunocore Holdings' 16 analysts is for revenues of US$300.2m in 2024. This would reflect a notable 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.75 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$289.5m and losses of US$1.56 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a noticeable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$84.99, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Immunocore Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$100 and the most bearish at US$67.16 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Immunocore Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 68% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 19% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Immunocore Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Immunocore Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Immunocore Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.