Harmony Biosciences (HRMY): Valuation Check After Encouraging Phase 3 EPX-100 Data in Dravet Syndrome

Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) just shared encouraging initial data from its Phase 3 ARGUS trial of EPX-100 in Dravet syndrome, showing around 50% median seizure reduction and a clean safety profile in long term use.

See our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings.

The upbeat EPX-100 readout seems to be feeding into a clear turn in sentiment, with the latest $38.82 share price sitting on the back of an 11.46% year to date share price return and a 20.22% one year total shareholder return, even though the three year total shareholder return is still deeply negative at 33.81%.

If this kind of pipeline driven story appeals to you, it could be a good moment to scan other specialist names in neurology and rare disease via our healthcare stocks.

Yet with analysts still seeing nearly 20% upside to their price target and Harmony generating double digit revenue and profit growth, investors now face a key question: is this a fresh buying opportunity, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.9% Undervalued

Compared with the last close at $38.82, the most followed narrative points to a higher fair value, framing Harmony as modestly mispriced rather than a moonshot.

Harmony is positioned to capture new sources of revenue and reduce product concentration risk through near-term late-stage pipeline catalysts, including potential first-to-market launches for ZYN002 in Fragile X syndrome and additional pitolisant formulations (HD and GR), each aimed at high-unmet-need, orphan indications.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue runway those rare disease launches could unlock, and what profit multiple this story quietly bakes in? The full narrative reveals the aggressive growth path, the margin expansion arc, and the precise earnings step up needed to justify that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $44.55 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside case could easily unravel if WAKIX faces faster than expected competitive erosion or if key late stage pipeline assets stumble at regulators.

Find out about the key risks to this Harmony Biosciences Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Harmony Biosciences Holdings Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with this view, or simply want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Harmony Biosciences Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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