Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Exact Sciences Corporation's (NASDAQ:EXAS) First-Quarter Report

It's been a pretty great week for Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ:EXAS) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$51.55 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$707m beat expectations by a respectable 2.6%, although statutory losses per share increased. Exact Sciences lost US$0.54, which was 42% more than what the analysts had included in their models. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 26 analysts covering Exact Sciences are now predicting revenues of US$3.09b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 91% to US$0.51. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.06b and losses of US$0.40 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

View our latest analysis for Exact Sciences

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$68.81, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Exact Sciences, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$90.00 and the most bearish at US$54.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Exact Sciences shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Exact Sciences' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Exact Sciences.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Exact Sciences. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Exact Sciences analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Exact Sciences is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.