Chimerix, Inc. (NASDAQ:CMRX) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

Shareholders of Chimerix, Inc. (NASDAQ:CMRX) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to US$3.08 following its latest third-quarter results. Chimerix beat revenue forecasts by a solid 11%, hitting US$1.6m. Statutory losses also increased, with a per-share loss of US$0.18, slightly larger than what the analysts wereexpecting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Chimerix

Following the latest results, Chimerix's twin analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$16.5m in 2021. This would be a major 50% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.67 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$20.0m and losses of US$0.62 per share in 2021. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The average price target lifted 25% to US$5.00, clearly signalling that the weaker revenue and EPS outlook are not expected to weigh on the stock over the longer term.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Chimerix's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 50% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.0%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Chimerix to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Chimerix. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that Chimerix's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for Chimerix going out as far as 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Chimerix (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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