Cidara Therapeutics Valuation After Clinical Trial Updates and 110% Weekly Price Surge

• Ever wondered if Cidara Therapeutics could be hiding serious value, or if its recent buzz is already baked into the price? You are not alone, and a closer look may reveal more than first impressions suggest.
• The stock has delivered an eye-watering 110% gain in the last week alone, and is up 1356.6% over the past year, raising both hopes for continued upside and questions about risk.
• Recent news has fueled the rally, with fresh clinical trial updates and strategic partnerships sending signals of renewed momentum and market confidence. These developments have put Cidara firmly in the spotlight, keeping investors on their toes as new information unfolds.
• Our first valuation check scores Cidara Therapeutics a 2 out of 6 for undervaluation. Traditional models are only part of the story. A more nuanced perspective awaits as we dig deeper into what really drives value for this fast-moving stock.

Cidara Therapeutics scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Cidara Therapeutics Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the value of a company by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them to reflect their value in today’s terms. For Cidara Therapeutics, this means taking expected Free Cash Flow (FCF) in coming years and weighing them against the risk and time value of money.

Currently, Cidara reports negative Free Cash Flow of -$132.94 Million. Analysts anticipate that while losses continue over the next few years, there is a potential turnaround, with FCF projected to climb to $165.5 Million by 2029. These analyst-driven estimates extend five years ahead; after that, further projections are extrapolated by Simply Wall St and reach as high as $795.36 Million (discounted to $405.61 Million) by 2035. All cash flow projections are presented in USD, matching the stock's listing currency.

Based on the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, the estimated intrinsic value for Cidara Therapeutics comes in at $414.74 per share, which is 47.5% higher than the current share price. This DCF analysis suggests that the market may be underestimating the company’s turnaround potential and future profit growth.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Cidara Therapeutics is undervalued by 47.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 897 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Cidara Therapeutics.

Approach 2: Cidara Therapeutics Price vs Book

The price-to-book (PB) ratio is often used as a key valuation tool for companies where earnings are negative or highly variable, as is typical for emerging biotechs like Cidara Therapeutics. While metrics like price-to-earnings (PE) lose relevance when profits are negative, PB focuses on a company’s net asset value, making it a more stable benchmark for assessing value in asset-driven or early-stage businesses.

Growth potential and risk play important roles in shaping what a fair PB ratio looks like for any given company. High-growth or lower-risk firms can often support a higher multiple, while riskier assets or slow growth environments typically drag that number downward. For the biotech industry as a whole, the average PB ratio stands at just 2.49x, reflecting both typical industry risks and uncertainty. Cidara Therapeutics, meanwhile, is trading much higher at 16.22x PB, and its peer group averages a slightly lower but still elevated 14.68x.

Rather than simply comparing to industry or peer averages, Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” evaluates the PB multiple in the context of Cidara’s projected growth, profit margin, risk factors, market capitalisation, and its specific niche within biotechs. By integrating these dynamics, the Fair Ratio offers a more accurate and tailored benchmark than the traditional one-size-fits-all approach of industry multiples. In Cidara’s case, the Fair Ratio aligns closely with its current PB, suggesting that the market might be accurately reflecting its strengths and risks at this stage.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PB ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1421 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Cidara Therapeutics Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative connects the company story you believe in with numbers, turning your perspectives on future revenue, earnings, and margins into a clear financial forecast and a Fair Value estimate. In simple terms, a Narrative lets you state what matters most about Cidara Therapeutics, link it to your assumptions about key drivers, and see what price those assumptions justify.

Unlike static models, Narratives are a dynamic, easy-to-use tool available for everyone on Simply Wall St's Community page, where millions of investors share and compare their views. Narratives let you decide if Cidara is a buy or sell by comparing the Fair Value, based on your own forecasts and reasoning, to the current market price. As news breaks or earnings are posted, your Narrative and Fair Value update automatically, keeping you in sync with the latest developments.

For example, some investors project the broadest potential for CD388, forecasting annual revenues up to $30 billion and a fair value near $800 per share, while others take a conservative view, expecting only a fraction of that market and a much lower valuation. With Narratives, you can explore these scenarios and choose the one that matches your conviction.

Do you think there's more to the story for Cidara Therapeutics? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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