Blueprint Medicines Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders of Blueprint Medicines Corporation (NASDAQ:BPMC) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to US$107 following its latest quarterly results. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and earnings both coming in very strong. Revenues were 18% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$96m, while the company also delivered a surprise statutory profit, against analyst expectations of a loss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Blueprint Medicines

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Blueprint Medicines' 16 analysts is for revenues of US$428.5m in 2024. This would reflect a sizeable 52% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 50% to US$2.29. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$393.0m and losses of US$5.54 per share in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very promising decrease in loss per share in particular.

It will come as no surprise to learn thatthe analysts have increased their price target for Blueprint Medicines 18% to US$115on the back of these upgrades. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Blueprint Medicines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$168 and the most bearish at US$50.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Blueprint Medicines' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 75% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Blueprint Medicines is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Blueprint Medicines going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Blueprint Medicines that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.