BioNTech SE Just Reported A Surprise Profit And Analysts Updated Their Estimates

BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.6% to US$111 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues of 141% beat expectations by €1.2b and was sufficient to generate a statutory profit of €0.81 - a pleasant surprise given that the analysts were forecasting a loss! The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for BioNTech

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 19 analysts covering BioNTech, is for revenues of €2.59b in 2025. This implies a chunky 15% reduction in BioNTech's revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching €3.38 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.69b and losses of €3.08 per share in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in to its losses per share forecasts.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$132, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on BioNTech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$172 and the most bearish at US$89.62 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 12% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 21% per year. It's pretty clear that BioNTech's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$132, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for BioNTech going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of BioNTech's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.