Analysts Are Upgrading BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX) After Its Latest Results

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals outperformed estimates, with revenues of US$109m beating estimates by 11%. Statutory losses were US$0.06, 67% smaller thanthe analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering BioCryst Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$433.4m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 48% to US$0.37. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$401.4m and US$0.63 per share in losses. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very favorable reduction to loss per share in particular.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$13.90, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic BioCryst Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 29% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 49% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$13.90, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple BioCryst Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.