Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.0% to close at US$75.68 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenue of US$75m came in 2.9% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$1.44, a 17% miss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Axsome Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Axsome Therapeutics from 16 analysts is for revenues of US$376.2m in 2024. If met, it would imply a huge 50% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 23% to US$4.83. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$376.4m and US$3.88 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Axsome Therapeutics even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a regrettable increase in per-share losses.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$124, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Axsome Therapeutics at US$190 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$97.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Axsome Therapeutics'historical trends, as the 72% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 87% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that Axsome Therapeutics is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Axsome Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Axsome Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Axsome Therapeutics you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.