Earnings Update: Alpine Immune Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALPN) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

Alpine Immune Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALPN) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Revenue crushed expectations at US$59m, beating expectations by 65%. Alpine Immune Sciences reported a statutory loss of US$0.64 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Alpine Immune Sciences

Taking into account the latest results, the eight analysts covering Alpine Immune Sciences provided consensus estimates of US$16.2m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a stressful 73% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 233% to US$1.68 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$27.4m and losses of US$1.43 per share in 2024. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The average price target lifted 28% to US$45.29, clearly signalling that the weaker revenue and EPS outlook are not expected to weigh on the stock over the longer term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alpine Immune Sciences at US$50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$41.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Alpine Immune Sciences is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 73% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 53% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Alpine Immune Sciences' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Alpine Immune Sciences going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Alpine Immune Sciences (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.