Analysts Are Upgrading Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY) After Its Latest Results

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenue crushed expectations at US$660m, beating expectations by 49%. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals reported a statutory loss of US$0.13 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, the 29 analysts covering Alnylam Pharmaceuticals provided consensus estimates of US$2.14b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a chunky 8.6% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 360% to US$2.61 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.88b and losses of US$3.56 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

The consensus price target rose 5.8% to US$274, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$400 and the most bearish at US$161 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 17% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 43% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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