Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a sad week for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY), who've watched their investment drop 14% to US$147 in the week since the company reported its yearly result. Revenues came in at US$1.8b, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$3.52 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

Following last week's earnings report, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' 26 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.83b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$4.20 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.77b and US$4.08 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to its losses per share forecasts.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$222, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alnylam Pharmaceuticals at US$395 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$136. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.08% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 45% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Alnylam Pharmaceuticals. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$222, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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