Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.1% to close at US$2.55 following the release of its first-quarter results. In addition to smashing expectations with revenues of US$57m, Akebia Therapeutics delivered a surprise statutory profit of US$0.03 per share, a notable improvement compared to analyst expectations of a loss. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Akebia Therapeutics. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Akebia Therapeutics' five analysts is for revenues of US$202.0m in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 9.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$0.17. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$189.6m and losses of US$0.23 per share in 2025. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Akebia Therapeutics' future following the latest consensus numbers, with a very favorable reduction to the loss per share forecasts in particular.

See our latest analysis for Akebia Therapeutics

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$7.30, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Akebia Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$10.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Akebia Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Akebia Therapeutics is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 12% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 13% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So although Akebia Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Akebia Therapeutics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Akebia Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.