Industry Analysts Just Made A Stunning Upgrade To Their Aeglea BioTherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGLE) Revenue Forecasts

Aeglea BioTherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGLE) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Aeglea BioTherapeutics will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected. Investor sentiment seems to be improving too, with the share price up 5.5% to US$6.49 over the past 7 days. Whether the upgrade is enough to drive the stock price higher is yet to be seen, however.

Following the upgrade, the most recent consensus for Aeglea BioTherapeutics from its six analysts is for revenues of US$18m in 2021 which, if met, would be a substantial 31% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to hold steady at around US$1.02. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11m and losses of US$1.06 per share in 2021. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

View our latest analysis for Aeglea BioTherapeutics

The consensus price target fell 5.9%, to US$13.57, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aeglea BioTherapeutics at US$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aeglea BioTherapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 71% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2021 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aeglea BioTherapeutics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Aeglea BioTherapeutics' prospects. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Aeglea BioTherapeutics.

Analysts are clearly in love with Aeglea BioTherapeutics at the moment, but before diving in - you should be aware that we've identified some warning flags with the business, such as dilutive stock issuance over the past year. For more information, you can click through to our platform to learn more about this and the 2 other warning signs we've identified .

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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