How Genentech’s Collaboration Exit Has Changed the Investment Story at Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)

• On August 13, 2025, Genentech announced the termination of its Strategic Collaboration and License Agreement with Adaptive Biotechnologies, originally established to develop oncology cell therapy products, with an effective end date of February 9, 2026.
• This action releases Adaptive Biotechnologies from its exclusivity obligations in oncology cell therapies and is expected to result in the recognition of US$33.7 million in non-cash revenue in the second half of 2025.
• We'll explore how the end of this major partnership may shift Adaptive's focus back to its core Immune Medicine programs.

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Adaptive Biotechnologies Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Adaptive Biotechnologies, you need to believe in the company’s long-term potential to advance immune sequencing and digital TCR-antigen prediction models for diagnostics and drug development, despite its ongoing unprofitability. The end of the Genentech partnership releases Adaptive from exclusivity constraints in oncology cell therapies, but does not materially affect the company’s main short-term catalyst, continued growth and adoption of its MRD business, while shifting strategic risk around revenue diversification and future cash burn. The July 2025 announcement that clonoSEQ will be integrated into Flatiron Health’s OncoEMR® platform directly supports near-term clinical volume expansion in MRD testing. For investors, this integration stands out as the most relevant recent development, as its success will likely define the core revenue and margin performance that underpins Adaptive’s investment case in the aftermath of the Genentech termination. On the other hand, investors should pay close attention to ongoing cash burn and the risk that prolonged losses might lead to...

Read the full narrative on Adaptive Biotechnologies (it's free!)

Adaptive Biotechnologies' narrative projects $356.2 million revenue and $50.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 20.2% yearly revenue growth and a $171.7 million increase in earnings from the current -$121.2 million.

Uncover how Adaptive Biotechnologies' forecasts yield a $14.00 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members provided three fair value estimates for Adaptive Biotechnologies ranging from US$7.88 to US$51.88 per share. While opinions vary, dependence on major partnerships remains a point of discussion with wider implications for near-term revenue strength and resilience.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Adaptive Biotechnologies - why the stock might be worth 39% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Adaptive Biotechnologies Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Adaptive Biotechnologies research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Adaptive Biotechnologies research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Adaptive Biotechnologies' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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