Does TEGNA’s Cash Flow Outlook Justify a Higher Share Price in 2025?

• If you are wondering whether TEGNA at around $19.55 is quietly underpriced or already fairly valued, you are in the right place to unpack what the numbers are really saying.
• The stock has inched up 0.8% over the last week and 4.1% year to date, and while the 7.6% 1 year and 58.0% 5 year returns are solid, the slightly negative 1 month move of -1.9% hints that the market is still undecided about its next big swing.
• Recent headlines have focused on TEGNA's ongoing role as a major local TV broadcaster, its strategic positioning around political ad spending cycles, and how shifting advertising budgets are affecting traditional media players. At the same time, investors have been watching industry wide moves in retransmission fees, regulatory scrutiny in media deals, and the broader shift in viewer behavior toward streaming. All of these factors frame how the market prices TEGNA's future cash flows.
• Right now, TEGNA scores a 5/6 valuation check rating, suggesting it looks undervalued on most but not all of our metrics. In the rest of this article we will break down those different valuation approaches and, by the end, explore an even better way to think about what the stock is really worth.

TEGNA delivered 7.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Media industry.

Approach 1: TEGNA Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today, using a rate that reflects risk and time.

For TEGNA, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $421.5 Million. Analysts provide several years of detailed forecasts, such as $614.8 Million in 2026 and $638.2 Million in 2028, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates beyond those to create a full 10 year view. By 2035, projected Free Cash Flow is still in the mid $400 Million range, suggesting a relatively stable, cash generative business rather than a high growth story.

When all these projected cash flows are discounted back using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, the intrinsic value lands at roughly $49.71 per share. Compared with a share price around $19.55, the model implies TEGNA is about 60.7% undervalued, which indicates a substantial margin of safety if the cash flow assumptions hold up.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests TEGNA is undervalued by 60.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 903 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TEGNA.

Approach 2: TEGNA Price vs Earnings

For a mature, profitable company like TEGNA, the Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is a useful way to see what investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of current earnings. In general, faster growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher PE, while slower or cyclical growth and higher risk usually mean the market will pay a lower multiple.

TEGNA currently trades on about 9.18x earnings, which is well below the broader Media industry average of around 15.58x and also under the peer group average of roughly 10.81x. Simply Wall St goes a step further with its proprietary Fair Ratio, which estimates the PE you might expect for TEGNA given its specific earnings growth outlook, margins, size, industry, and risk profile. For TEGNA, that Fair Ratio sits at about 15.90x.

Because the Fair Ratio explicitly incorporates company specific factors, it is a more tailored yardstick than simple peer or industry comparisons. Comparing the 15.90x Fair Ratio with the current 9.18x PE suggests the market is pricing TEGNA at a discount to what its fundamentals might justify.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your TEGNA Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St where you connect your view of a company’s story with your own revenue, earnings, and margin assumptions. These then flow into a financial forecast and a Fair Value that you can compare with today’s price to help you decide whether to buy, hold, or sell.

On the Community page, millions of investors use Narratives as an easy, accessible tool that updates dynamically when new information such as earnings, regulatory news, or M&A headlines hits the market. This helps keep your story, numbers, and Fair Value in sync.

For example, one TEGNA investor might build a cautious Narrative that leans into long term pressure on local broadcast audiences, slower revenue, and modest margins, reaching a Fair Value around the current analyst consensus near the low 20s. Another might create a more optimistic Narrative that assumes successful digital expansion, stronger political ad cycles, and value creating consolidation to justify a meaningfully higher Fair Value. The difference between those Fair Values and today’s share price can clarify how each investor thinks about potential upside and downside.

Do you think there's more to the story for TEGNA? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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