Digging Into TEGNA Shares After 51% Surge and DCF Insights for 2025

If you find yourself puzzling over what to do with TEGNA stock these days, you are not alone. The company’s share price has been full of surprises recently, rising 51.4% over the past year and notching an 88.5% gain over five years. Even in the last thirty days, TEGNA posted a respectable 2.6% bump, hinting that investors are catching on to something interesting below the surface. Market chatter about ongoing shifts in the media industry and some strategic moves by TEGNA have only made the outlook more intriguing, with many wondering if the recent run has room left or if risks have shifted.

Despite the strong upward momentum, what really has investors talking is TEGNA’s value score. Out of six tests commonly used to spot an undervalued stock, TEGNA checks off five, landing it a value score of 5. That is not something you see every day and it is exactly the kind of signal that invites a closer look at what regular valuation metrics are telling us.

Next, let’s break down those different valuation methods one by one to see where TEGNA stands. And if you are hoping for an even deeper read on what these numbers truly mean, hang tight for a more holistic approach to valuation coming up at the end of this article.

TEGNA delivered 51.4% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Media industry.

Approach 1: TEGNA Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's true value by projecting its future free cash flows and discounting them back to today's dollars. This approach gives investors a way to look beyond surface numbers and focus on the company's fundamental earning power over time.

For TEGNA, current Free Cash Flow stands at $570 million. Looking ahead, analysts provide forecasts for the next several years. For example, estimates show $618.6 million in 2026, $362.8 million in 2027, and $635 million in 2028. Since detailed analyst projections typically stop after about five years, further forecasts through 2035 are calculated by extrapolating these earlier numbers. By 2029, free cash flow is expected to be $425 million, with subsequent years estimated to hover just above $400 million.

Using this model, the estimated intrinsic value per share comes out to $42.93. This is based on applying a discount rate to all projected cash flows to arrive at what those future dollars are worth today. Compared to the current share price, the implied discount indicates the stock is 51.0% undervalued at present.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TEGNA.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests TEGNA is undervalued by 51.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: TEGNA Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a classic way to value profitable companies like TEGNA because it compares the current share price to its actual earnings, reflecting what investors are willing to pay today for a slice of the company’s profits. It is especially useful in sectors where profits are consistent and not distorted by large one-off items.

A company’s normal or fair PE ratio depends on future growth expectations and risk. High-growth, low-risk companies generally warrant higher PE ratios, while slower-growing, riskier firms usually receive a discount. For TEGNA, the current PE ratio is 7.5x, which is much lower than both the industry average for media companies at 20.2x and the average of peers at 11.3x. This low PE might suggest that the market is underestimating TEGNA’s future prospects, or it may indicate some overlooked risks.

Simply Wall St also calculates a tailored “Fair Ratio” for TEGNA, which is 15.7x. Unlike standard benchmarks, the Fair Ratio considers not just industry trends and peers but also company-specific factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, market capitalization, and risk profile. This nuanced metric provides a more accurate target and helps avoid pitfalls of simple comparisons, giving retail investors a stronger foundation for decisions.

In this context, TEGNA’s 7.5x PE is well below the Fair Ratio of 15.7x, indicating the stock is attractively valued and may offer meaningful upside potential if market sentiment changes.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your TEGNA Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your personal, evidence-backed story about a company’s future; think of it as connecting your unique perspective to numbers like fair value, future revenue, and margins. This approach lets you articulate why you believe TEGNA is a winner (or not), linking your outlook directly to a financial forecast and resulting share valuation without guesswork or jargon.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors are using Narratives to test their reasoning, compare their targets to others, and make smarter decisions about when to buy or sell. Narratives show the gap between your calculated Fair Value and today’s market Price, giving you an actionable signal. Because they update automatically when major news or earnings land, you can see instantly how your story holds up as reality changes.

For example, some investors are cautious about TEGNA, forecasting a shrinking audience and think $21.33 is fair value, while others, more optimistic about digital expansion and political ad gains, set price targets above $30. This demonstrates how the same company inspires very different (but equally valid) Narratives based on your view of the future.

Do you think there's more to the story for TEGNA? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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