Spotify Technology S.A.

NYSE:SPOT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$68.2b

Spotify Technology Valuation

Is SPOT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPOT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPOT ($337.56) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($460.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPOT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPOT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SPOT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA77.9x
PEG Ratio4.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPOT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average42.1x
DIS Walt Disney
34x21.5%US$165.1b
FWON.K Formula One Group
65.1x26.2%US$18.0b
NFLX Netflix
41.4x16.0%US$298.6b
WMG Warner Music Group
27.9x19.0%US$15.1b
SPOT Spotify Technology
130.9x29.6%US$68.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (130.9x) compared to the peer average (42.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Entertainment Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a27.1%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a27.1%
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Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (130.9x) compared to the US Entertainment industry average (19.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPOT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPOT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio130.7x
Fair PE Ratio35x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (130.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPOT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$337.56
US$393.23
+16.5%
14.6%US$470.99US$247.74n/a34
Aug ’25US$336.50
US$380.75
+13.2%
14.5%US$458.66US$241.25n/a34
Jul ’25US$313.84
US$341.82
+8.9%
14.6%US$401.20US$210.63n/a32
Jun ’25US$296.78
US$341.45
+15.1%
15.0%US$405.95US$213.51n/a33
May ’25US$284.54
US$330.49
+16.1%
16.3%US$399.70US$210.22n/a34
Apr ’25US$266.43
US$267.17
+0.3%
14.1%US$329.82US$163.12n/a34
Mar ’25US$263.75
US$265.12
+0.5%
13.5%US$331.89US$164.14n/a33
Feb ’25US$218.96
US$217.82
-0.5%
15.0%US$301.72US$164.09n/a31
Jan ’25US$187.91
US$212.39
+13.0%
15.4%US$308.28US$152.75n/a31
Dec ’24US$180.69
US$189.83
+5.1%
12.8%US$256.77US$137.50n/a30
Nov ’24US$167.63
US$181.27
+8.1%
15.0%US$249.87US$105.38n/a31
Oct ’24US$154.64
US$164.91
+6.6%
15.0%US$240.20US$104.60n/a31
Sep ’24US$157.56
US$168.23
+6.8%
15.3%US$249.70US$108.74n/a32
Aug ’24US$150.84
US$170.01
+12.7%
15.0%US$248.85US$108.24US$336.5033
Jul ’24US$160.55
US$159.43
-0.7%
12.9%US$189.34US$107.15US$313.8432
Jun ’24US$153.92
US$153.48
-0.3%
12.9%US$181.24US$106.08US$296.7831
May ’24US$138.43
US$150.80
+8.9%
14.5%US$184.80US$91.73US$284.5431
Apr ’24US$133.62
US$136.93
+2.5%
17.1%US$190.97US$91.19US$266.4330
Mar ’24US$117.20
US$131.12
+11.9%
17.8%US$181.61US$81.05US$263.7529
Feb ’24US$118.14
US$128.03
+8.4%
16.1%US$187.11US$83.51US$218.9629
Jan ’24US$78.95
US$124.54
+57.8%
18.2%US$184.55US$91.75US$187.9129
Dec ’23US$79.45
US$118.65
+49.3%
18.4%US$174.25US$86.62US$180.6929
Nov ’23US$80.17
US$116.96
+45.9%
18.4%US$171.70US$85.36US$167.6329
Oct ’23US$86.30
US$137.07
+58.8%
22.2%US$218.49US$86.84US$154.6427
Sep ’23US$106.52
US$142.44
+33.7%
22.1%US$228.01US$90.62US$157.5627
Aug ’23US$115.35
US$144.55
+25.3%
22.1%US$231.27US$89.52US$150.8427

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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