Warner Music Group Corp.

NasdaqGS:WMG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$16.7b

Warner Music Group Valuation

Is WMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$42.27
Fair Value
24.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: WMG ($31.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($42.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WMG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WMG?

Key metric: As WMG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for WMG. This is calculated by dividing WMG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is WMG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio38.5x
EarningsUS$429.00m
Market CapUS$16.75b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average72.7x
EDR Endeavor Group Holdings
107x41.8%US$14.5b
TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group
22.9x14.2%US$19.4b
FWON.K Formula One Group
85.6x14.7%US$23.7b
MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports
75.3x-8.5%US$5.3b
WMG Warner Music Group
38.5x20.3%US$16.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.5x) compared to the peer average (72.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Entertainment Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DDI DoubleDown Interactive
4.2x0.3%US$495.53m
RDBX Redbox Entertainment
1.2x-121.8%US$76.65m
GMM Global Mofy AI
0.9xn/aUS$11.02m
MSGM Motorsport Games
0.9xn/aUS$4.74m
WMG 38.5xIndustry Avg. 22.9xNo. of Companies8PE020406080100+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.5x) compared to the US Entertainment industry average (23.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio38.5x
Fair PE Ratio25.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$31.80
US$35.56
+11.8%
13.1%US$44.00US$23.00n/a20
Jan ’26US$31.00
US$36.05
+16.3%
14.3%US$44.00US$23.00n/a19
Dec ’25US$32.52
US$35.89
+10.4%
14.3%US$44.00US$23.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$32.21
US$36.00
+11.8%
15.1%US$44.00US$23.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$31.39
US$36.21
+15.4%
14.4%US$44.00US$23.00n/a19
Sep ’25US$28.61
US$35.78
+25.1%
14.0%US$44.00US$23.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$29.03
US$37.72
+29.9%
12.6%US$44.00US$23.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$30.25
US$38.13
+26.0%
13.8%US$45.00US$21.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$29.78
US$39.17
+31.5%
15.2%US$52.00US$21.00n/a18
May ’25US$33.43
US$39.31
+17.6%
15.3%US$52.00US$21.00n/a18
Apr ’25US$33.08
US$39.26
+18.7%
15.5%US$52.00US$21.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$35.48
US$39.45
+11.2%
15.2%US$52.00US$21.00n/a19
Feb ’25US$37.13
US$37.24
+0.3%
18.0%US$52.00US$15.40US$31.8019
Jan ’25US$35.79
US$36.71
+2.6%
17.2%US$52.00US$15.40US$31.0019
Dec ’24US$34.59
US$36.61
+5.8%
17.1%US$52.00US$15.40US$32.5219
Nov ’24US$31.43
US$36.18
+15.1%
18.0%US$52.00US$15.40US$32.2119
Oct ’24US$31.40
US$35.92
+14.4%
18.2%US$52.00US$15.40US$31.3919
Sep ’24US$33.65
US$35.52
+5.6%
18.4%US$52.00US$15.40US$28.6120
Aug ’24US$31.44
US$32.20
+2.4%
19.5%US$52.00US$15.40US$29.0322
Jul ’24US$26.09
US$31.76
+21.7%
20.4%US$52.00US$14.00US$30.2521
Jun ’24US$24.39
US$32.90
+34.9%
20.3%US$52.00US$14.00US$29.7820
May ’24US$31.07
US$36.68
+18.1%
18.4%US$52.00US$14.00US$33.4319
Apr ’24US$33.37
US$37.30
+11.8%
18.1%US$52.00US$14.00US$33.0820
Mar ’24US$31.21
US$37.25
+19.4%
18.2%US$52.00US$14.00US$35.4820
Feb ’24US$36.99
US$36.35
-1.7%
19.2%US$52.00US$14.00US$37.1320
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 20 Analysts
US$35.56
Fair Value
10.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/31 10:05
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Warner Music Group Corp. is covered by 35 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Kannan VenkateshwarBarclays
Jessica Reif Ehrlich CohenBofA Global Research