Can Sinclair’s Share Price Rally Continue After Swift Kimmel U-Turn in 2025?

Trying to figure out what is next for Sinclair stock? Whether you are weighing up your options for the first time or continuously keeping an eye on the broadcast giant, you are in good company. Sinclair's share price has had a year of twists and turns, dipping 12.9% year-to-date, but showing short-term strength with a 4.7% gain in the past week. These quick moves have left many investors asking if this is the start of a meaningful rebound or just a short-lived rally driven by news headlines.

Recent headlines have certainly kept things interesting. Last week, Sinclair made waves by reversing its decision and putting "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" back on air after some high-profile network drama. Moves like this seem to be changing how investors are perceiving risks tied to Sinclair's media relationships. This is one factor that can move markets suddenly, even before any new numbers hit the books. That might help explain the recent bounce, as sentiment shifts along with the news cycle and broader industry negotiations.

But what about fundamentals? After reviewing six different valuation checks typically used to spot bargains, Sinclair only meets one undervalued criterion, earning a valuation score of 1 out of 6. It is not exactly screaming “deep value” by traditional standards, and that raises some important questions about whether the recent share price lifts are justified or simply a reaction to the latest headlines. Next, let us break down those valuation checks to see what is really driving the fair value conversation for Sinclair. Stay tuned, because there is an even better lens for making sense of valuation that we will explore toward the end of this article.

Sinclair scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Sinclair Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation method estimates a company's intrinsic value based on the future cash flows it is expected to generate, projecting them into the years ahead and then discounting them back to today’s dollars. This approach provides a snapshot of what the company might be truly worth, based on its ability to generate cash for shareholders over time.

For Sinclair, the DCF model starts with a current Free Cash Flow (FCF) of $441.8 million. Analysts provide concrete estimates for the next several years, projecting a significant drop to $292.3 million in 2026 and then $79.6 million in 2027. Beyond that, cash flows are extrapolated with year ten (2035) FCF forecast at $35.5 million. These numbers are projected using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which is standard for media companies facing rapid industry changes.

After all these future cash flows are discounted back to the present, the estimated intrinsic value per share is $8.80. Compared to Sinclair’s current share price, this suggests the stock is approximately 68.1% overvalued.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Sinclair.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Sinclair may be overvalued by 68.1%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Sinclair Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is often considered the go-to valuation metric for profitable companies like Sinclair. It measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of the company’s earnings, making it a practical way to judge whether a stock seems expensive or reasonably priced relative to its profitability.

What is a “normal” PE ratio? That depends a lot on what investors expect for growth and how much risk they see in owning the stock. Faster-growing, more stable companies justify higher PE ratios. In contrast, slower growth and higher risk usually mean lower ratios are fair.

Sinclair’s current PE ratio sits at 20.6x, which is right around the broader media industry average of 20.4x. It is noticeably higher than the peer average of 6.6x, suggesting the market is assigning a premium to Sinclair compared to direct competitors. To get a more tailored benchmark, Simply Wall St calculates a “Fair Ratio” for Sinclair, which in this case is 21.0x. This calculation factors in the company’s unique combination of expected growth, profit margins, industry trends, and specific risks.

Why use the Fair Ratio? Unlike simple industry or peer averages, the Fair Ratio provides a personalized yardstick. It considers all the relevant aspects of Sinclair rather than just lumping it in with companies that might have very different financial profiles or market dynamics.

With Sinclair’s actual PE ratio (20.6x) coming in nearly identical to its Fair Ratio (21.0x), the stock looks fairly valued on this metric.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Sinclair Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. Narratives are a fresh, user-friendly way investors can connect the story they believe about a company to real financial forecasts and a resulting fair value, all in one place. Instead of just crunching raw numbers, Narratives let you map out your perspective on Sinclair, such as how its revenue, earnings, and margins might change, so you can see how those beliefs stack up against today’s share price.

This approach, available for free on Simply Wall St’s popular Community page, is used by millions of investors seeking deeper context for their decisions. Narratives make it easy to weigh recent news or earnings reports, as forecasts and fair values update dynamically whenever the story changes. By directly comparing your Narrative’s fair value with the current market price, you gain a clear signal of when it could make sense to buy, hold, or sell.

For example, some investors in the Sinclair Community are bullish, projecting a $27.00 fair value, while others are more cautious, seeing just $8.50. You can explore these different perspectives and build your own, all based on what you believe is most likely for Sinclair’s future.

Do you think there's more to the story for Sinclair? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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