| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 5/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 0/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
NCMI Stock Overview
National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America.
National CineMedia Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$1.02 |
| 52 Week High | US$5.23 |
| 52 Week Low | US$0.92 |
| Beta | 1.41 |
| 1 Month Change | -22.14% |
| 3 Month Change | -60.16% |
| 1 Year Change | -79.64% |
| 3 Year Change | -84.73% |
| 5 Year Change | -86.45% |
| Change since IPO | -96.03% |
Recent News & Updates
National CineMedia: A Dividend Trap In A Recovering Industry
NCMI was hit just as hard as theaters during covid, as theaters open, it should return to profitability eventually. Pre covid, this was a decent business with flat revenue but high debt plus dividend heavy policy added risk. Share prices currently offer an almost 10% dividend yield, but this is a classic dividend trap in my view.
Shareholder Returns
| NCMI | US Media | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -15.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% |
| 1Y | -79.6% | -32.5% | -18.8% |
Return vs Industry: NCMI underperformed the US Media industry which returned -33% over the past year.
Return vs Market: NCMI underperformed the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| NCMI volatility | |
|---|---|
| NCMI Average Weekly Movement | 10.1% |
| Media Industry Average Movement | 9.0% |
| Market Average Movement | 8.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.7% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: NCMI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.
Volatility Over Time: NCMI's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 346 | Tom Lesinski | https://www.ncm.com |
National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater.
National CineMedia Fundamentals Summary
| NCMI fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$183.65m |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$54.50m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$145.10m |
0.6x
P/S Ratio-1.5x
P/E RatioIs NCMI overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| NCMI income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$145.10m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$95.10m |
| Gross Profit | US$50.00m |
| Other Expenses | US$104.50m |
| Earnings | -US$54.50m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -0.67 |
| Gross Margin | 34.46% |
| Net Profit Margin | -37.56% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | -272.1% |
How did NCMI perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
11.8%
Current Dividend Yield-27%
Payout RatioValuation
Is NCMI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCMI?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is NCMI's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$183.65m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 8.7x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -23.6x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does NCMI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| NCMI PS Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 1.4x | ||
EEX Emerald Holding | 1.2x | n/a | US$276.3m |
SCOR comScore | 0.5x | 5.0% | US$175.1m |
ADTH AdTheorent Holding Company | 1.2x | 17.1% | US$209.2m |
CTV Innovid | 2.5x | 30.2% | US$245.7m |
NCMI National CineMedia | 0.6x | 26.6% | US$183.7m |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NCMI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does NCMI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Media Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NCMI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the US Media industry average (1.1x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NCMI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.6x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 1.5x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NCMI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NCMI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NCMI ($1.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($12.85)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NCMI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NCMI's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.
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Future Growth
How is National CineMedia forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?
Future Growth Score
5/6Future Growth Score 5/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
95.0%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: NCMI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: NCMI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: NCMI is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: NCMI's revenue (26.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: NCMI's revenue (26.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NCMI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Past Performance
How has National CineMedia performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
0/6Past Performance Score 0/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
-59.2%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: NCMI is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: NCMI is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: NCMI is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 59.2% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NCMI's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: NCMI is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Media industry (18.8%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: NCMI's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.
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Financial Health
How is National CineMedia's financial position?
Financial Health Score
0/6Financial Health Score 0/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: NCMI has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.
Long Term Liabilities: NCMI has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: NCMI has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.
Reducing Debt: NCMI's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.
Debt Coverage: NCMI's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.
Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if NCMI's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.
Balance Sheet
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Dividend
What is National CineMedia current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
2/6Dividend Score 2/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage
11.76%
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: NCMI's dividend (11.76%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).
High Dividend: NCMI's dividend (11.76%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.23%)
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: NCMI's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.
Growing Dividend: NCMI's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: NCMI is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: NCMI is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
2.2yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Tom Lesinski (61 yo)
2.83yrs
Tenure
US$2,666,046
Compensation
Mr. Thomas F. Lesinski, also known as Tom, served as Interim Principal Financial Officer at National CineMedia, Inc. since April 28, 2020. He has been Chief Executive Officer of National CineMedia, Inc., a...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Tom's total compensation ($USD2.67M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.69M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Tom's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: NCMI's management team is considered experienced (2.2 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: NCMI's board of directors are considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3%.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
National CineMedia, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: National CineMedia, Inc.
- Ticker: NCMI
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 2006
- Industry: Advertising
- Sector: Media
- Implied Market Cap: US$183.655m
- Market Cap: US$83.389m
- Shares outstanding: 172.08m
- Website: https://www.ncm.com
Number of Employees
Location
- National CineMedia, Inc.
- 6300 South Syracuse Way
- Suite 300
- Centennial
- Colorado
- 80111
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/06/27 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/06/27 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/30 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.