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NCMI

National CineMedia NasdaqGS:NCMI Stock Report

Last Price

US$1.02

Market Cap

US$183.7m

7D

-15.7%

1Y

-79.6%

Updated

27 Jun, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
NCMI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health0/6
Dividends2/6

NCMI Stock Overview

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America.

National CineMedia Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for National CineMedia
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$1.02
52 Week HighUS$5.23
52 Week LowUS$0.92
Beta1.41
1 Month Change-22.14%
3 Month Change-60.16%
1 Year Change-79.64%
3 Year Change-84.73%
5 Year Change-86.45%
Change since IPO-96.03%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 06

National CineMedia: A Dividend Trap In A Recovering Industry

NCMI was hit just as hard as theaters during covid, as theaters open, it should return to profitability eventually. Pre covid, this was a decent business with flat revenue but high debt plus dividend heavy policy added risk. Share prices currently offer an almost 10% dividend yield, but this is a classic dividend trap in my view.

Shareholder Returns

NCMIUS MediaUS Market
7D-15.7%3.6%6.3%
1Y-79.6%-32.5%-18.8%

Return vs Industry: NCMI underperformed the US Media industry which returned -33% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NCMI underperformed the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NCMI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NCMI volatility
NCMI Average Weekly Movement10.1%
Media Industry Average Movement9.0%
Market Average Movement8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: NCMI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NCMI's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2006346Tom Lesinskihttps://www.ncm.com

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater.

National CineMedia Fundamentals Summary

How do National CineMedia's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NCMI fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$183.65m
Earnings (TTM)-US$54.50m
Revenue (TTM)US$145.10m

0.6x

P/S Ratio

-1.5x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NCMI income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$145.10m
Cost of RevenueUS$95.10m
Gross ProfitUS$50.00m
Other ExpensesUS$104.50m
Earnings-US$54.50m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-0.67
Gross Margin34.46%
Net Profit Margin-37.56%
Debt/Equity Ratio-272.1%

How did NCMI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

11.8%

Current Dividend Yield

-27%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NCMI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCMI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NCMI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-23.6x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NCMI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

NCMI PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for NCMI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.4x
EEX Emerald Holding
1.2xn/aUS$276.3m
SCOR comScore
0.5x5.0%US$175.1m
ADTH AdTheorent Holding Company
1.2x17.1%US$209.2m
CTV Innovid
2.5x30.2%US$245.7m
NCMI National CineMedia
0.6x26.6%US$183.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NCMI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NCMI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Media Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NCMI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the US Media industry average (1.1x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCMI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCMI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NCMI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCMI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NCMI ($1.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($12.85)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCMI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NCMI's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


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Future Growth

How is National CineMedia forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


95.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NCMI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NCMI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: NCMI is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NCMI's revenue (26.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NCMI's revenue (26.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NCMI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has National CineMedia performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-59.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NCMI is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: NCMI is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NCMI is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 59.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NCMI's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: NCMI is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Media industry (18.8%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: NCMI's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is National CineMedia's financial position?

Financial Health Score

0/6

Financial Health Score 0/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NCMI has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: NCMI has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NCMI has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: NCMI's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.

Debt Coverage: NCMI's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if NCMI's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is National CineMedia current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Future Dividend Coverage


11.76%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NCMI's dividend (11.76%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: NCMI's dividend (11.76%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.23%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NCMI's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: NCMI's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: NCMI is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: NCMI is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Tom Lesinski (61 yo)

2.83yrs

Tenure

US$2,666,046

Compensation

Mr. Thomas F. Lesinski, also known as Tom, served as Interim Principal Financial Officer at National CineMedia, Inc. since April 28, 2020. He has been Chief Executive Officer of National CineMedia, Inc., a...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tom's total compensation ($USD2.67M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.69M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tom's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NCMI's management team is considered experienced (2.2 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: NCMI's board of directors are considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

National CineMedia, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: National CineMedia, Inc.
  • Ticker: NCMI
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 2006
  • Industry: Advertising
  • Sector: Media
  • Implied Market Cap: US$183.655m
  • Market Cap: US$83.389m
  • Shares outstanding: 172.08m
  • Website: https://www.ncm.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • National CineMedia, Inc.
  • 6300 South Syracuse Way
  • Suite 300
  • Centennial
  • Colorado
  • 80111
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/12/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.