National CineMedia, Inc.

NasdaqGS:NCMI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$641.6m

National CineMedia Valuation

Is NCMI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCMI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NCMI ($6.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($23.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCMI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCMI?

Key metric: As NCMI is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NCMI. This is calculated by dividing NCMI's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NCMI's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.6x
SalesUS$245.30m
Market CapUS$641.63m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NCMI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NCMI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2x
PUBM PubMatic
2.5x7.9%US$739.9m
BOC Boston Omaha
4.4x6.0%US$456.2m
PERI Perion Network
0.7x-8.7%US$403.3m
CCO Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings
0.3x4.0%US$763.0m
NCMI National CineMedia
2.6x11.8%US$641.6m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NCMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the peer average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NCMI's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Media Industry?

35 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PARA Paramount Global
0.2x1.5%US$7.37b
DISH DISH Network
0.2x-1.3%US$3.08b
ATUS Altice USA
0.1x-2.4%US$1.10b
ADV Advantage Solutions
0.3x-2.5%US$1.08b
NCMI 2.6xIndustry Avg. 0.9xNo. of Companies35PS01.22.43.64.86+
35 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NCMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the US Media industry average (0.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCMI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCMI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NCMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NCMI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$6.69
US$8.06
+20.5%
4.6%US$8.50US$7.50n/a4
Nov ’25US$7.17
US$7.50
+4.6%
12.5%US$8.50US$6.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$6.80
US$7.50
+10.3%
12.5%US$8.50US$6.00n/a4
Sep ’25US$6.89
US$7.50
+8.9%
12.5%US$8.50US$6.00n/a4
Aug ’25US$5.77
US$6.50
+12.7%
10.9%US$7.50US$6.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$4.22
US$6.33
+50.1%
13.4%US$7.50US$5.50n/a3
Jun ’25US$5.55
US$6.33
+14.1%
13.4%US$7.50US$5.50n/a3
May ’25US$4.47
US$6.08
+36.1%
8.4%US$6.75US$5.50n/a3
Apr ’25US$5.32
US$6.08
+14.3%
8.4%US$6.75US$5.50n/a3
Mar ’25US$4.15
US$5.00
+20.5%
14.1%US$6.00US$4.50n/a3
Feb ’25US$4.05
US$5.00
+23.5%
14.1%US$6.00US$4.50n/a3
Jan ’25US$4.14
US$5.00
+20.8%
14.1%US$6.00US$4.50n/a3
Dec ’24US$3.95
US$5.50
+39.2%
9.1%US$6.00US$5.00n/a2
Nov ’24US$3.92
US$4.85
+23.7%
23.7%US$6.00US$3.70US$7.172
Oct ’24US$4.49
US$4.85
+8.0%
23.7%US$6.00US$3.70US$6.802
Sep ’24US$4.43
US$4.35
-1.8%
14.9%US$5.00US$3.70US$6.892
Mar ’24US$2.18
US$18.75
+759.3%
86.7%US$35.00US$2.50US$4.152
Feb ’24US$2.65
US$18.75
+607.5%
86.7%US$35.00US$2.50US$4.052
Jan ’24US$2.20
US$20.00
+809.1%
75.0%US$35.00US$5.00US$4.142
Dec ’23US$4.33
US$20.00
+361.6%
75.0%US$35.00US$5.00US$3.952
Nov ’23US$4.29
US$22.50
+424.6%
77.8%US$40.00US$5.00US$3.922

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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