National CineMedia, Inc.

NasdaqGS:NCMI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$333.9m

National CineMedia Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

National CineMedia is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 87.5% and 6.6% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 87.5% per annum.

Key information

87.5%

Earnings growth rate

87.51%

EPS growth rate

Media earnings growth33.0%
Revenue growth rate6.6%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated17 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 24

NCMI: Expanded Theater Media Footprint And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have held National CineMedia's price target steady at $5.38, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly different revenue growth, profit margins, and a future P/E of about 27x, without a change to their overall valuation view. What's in the News National CineMedia and Creative Realities agreed to expand and modernize AMC Theatres’ in-lobby media across 285 locations, adding multiple 75 inch digital screens per site and creating more touchpoints for advertisers throughout the theater.
Narrative Update • Apr 10

NCMI: Guided Profitability And Share Repurchases Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on National CineMedia by $0.13 to reflect slightly softer assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the trimmed price target as a refinement of assumptions rather than a shift in the overall thesis, with valuation still supported by existing revenue and margin expectations.
Narrative Update • Mar 27

NCMI: Guided Profitability And Share Repurchases Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have reduced their average price target on National CineMedia by about $1 to $6, citing weaker than expected theater attendance, which could result in Q4 revenue coming in modestly below prior expectations while still remaining within the guided profitability range. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts still see the current price target of about $6 as consistent with the company remaining within its guided profitability range, even with softer Q4 revenue expectations.
Narrative Update • Mar 12

NCMI: Resilient Profitability And Cost Discipline Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have reduced their price targets on National CineMedia to around $6, down about $1. They cited softer than expected theater attendance and slightly weaker projected revenue, while still expecting profitability to remain within prior guidance ranges.
Narrative Update • Feb 24

NCMI: Data Partnership And Cost Discipline Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have reduced their consolidated price target on National CineMedia by $1 to reflect recent target cuts from $7 to $6. They cited softer-than-expected theater attendance and the potential for Q4 revenue to come in modestly below prior expectations, while still remaining within guidance on profitability.
Narrative Update • Feb 10

NCMI: Data Partnership And Profitability Discipline Will Support Future Upside

Narrative Update on National CineMedia Analysts have trimmed their price targets on National CineMedia, with the modeled fair value edging from US$5.75 to US$5.50 as they factor in expectations for softer Q4 attendance, slightly weaker revenue within guidance, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on National CineMedia reflect a more cautious tone, with price targets eased lower as analysts recalibrate their assumptions for Q4 attendance, revenue, and the appropriate P/E multiple.
New Narrative • Feb 06

Programmatic Pressure And Soft Local Advertising Will Challenge Cinema Ads Yet Leave Upside Potential

Catalysts About National CineMedia National CineMedia sells cinema advertising across a large U.S. theater network, connecting brands with moviegoing audiences. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Jan 27

NCMI: Profitability Resilience And Data Partnership Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on National CineMedia by $0.25 to $5.75, citing slightly softer revenue expectations tied to weaker theater attendance. They still see profitability tracking within prior guidance.
New Narrative • Jan 23

Programmatic Expansion And Premium Cinema Formats Will Transform Long Term Advertising Potential

Catalysts About National CineMedia National CineMedia sells cinema advertising across a large theater network, connecting brands with moviegoers before and around feature films. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Jan 12

NCMI: Profitability Discipline And Data Partnership Will Support Future Upside

Narrative Update on National CineMedia Analysts have reduced their 12 month price target on National CineMedia to $6.00 from $7.00, citing expectations for Q4 revenue to come in modestly below earlier views while remaining within the guided profitability range. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary points to a mixed setup for National CineMedia, with optimism around profitability discipline and caution around near term revenue pressure tied to attendance trends.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 26

National CineMedia: Difficulties In Recovery

Summary National CineMedia remains a hold as recovery from the pandemic is slow, with stagnant stock price and weak financial health despite recent debt elimination. Exclusive partnerships with major theater chains and upcoming blockbuster releases could drive revenue growth in 2025 and 2026. Risks include heavy dependence on cinema attendance, competition from streaming, and potential delisting if the stock price falls further. While industry catalysts exist, current margins and EV/EBITDA multiples suggest limited near-term upside; patience is warranted before considering a buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Sep 24

Risky Reliance On Blockbusters And Franchise Titles Threatens Sustainable Growth

Reliance on blockbuster hits for box office success is risky as audience preferences change and streaming competition rises.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 11

National CineMedia: 2024 Looks Like A Write-Off

Summary National CineMedia emerged from bankruptcy in 2023 with a clean balance sheet but weak business fundamentals. The company's guidance for Q2/2024 suggests 2024 will be a major down year compared to 2023 for NCMI's ad business. The main issue is a weak film slate, which is outside of NCMI's control. Investors looking for an industry rebound in 2025 may find better value in beaten-down theater chains. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 15

National CineMedia: Starting With A Clean Slate

Summary As expected, National CineMedia filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and restructured debts. Post restructuring, NCMI looks to be on much sounder footing, as the company's adj. OIBDA was positive with no debt. However, at 9.1x EV/EBITDA, I believe NCMI is currently properly valued relative to its theater chain peers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 23

National CineMedia creditors tap banker to examine options for debt - Bloomberg

A lender group of in-theater advertising name National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) has hired Centerview Partners to explore options, Bloomberg reports, amid an environment of movie-theater uncertainty and some approaching debt maturities. NCMI reported some bounceback revenues of $67M in the second quarter vs. an easy COVID-19 pandemic comparison. But it has about $73M in cash and equivalents against more than $900M in long-term debt at last report - and the domestic box office is in the midst of a lengthy lull in new offerings. The company has revolving credit due in June, and Standard & Poor's estimates that debt will be about 14 times earnings this year. Meanwhile, Bloomberg notes NCMI's first-lien term loan due 2025 is quoting around 73 cents on the dollar, down from 81 cents as of Aug. 8.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 25

National CineMedia engages iSpot to enhance ad reporting

In-theater advertising company National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) is tapping TV measurement company iSpot to enhance its value to advertisers through better reach reporting. Bringing in iSpot's currency grade ad catalog and verification, National CineMedia can report on incremental reach that advertising brings brand and studio customers in addition to linear TV. NCM will also offer more comprehensive reach, frequency, attribution, and tune-in reporting for client campaigns thanks to iSpot's integration through Neustar identity resolution. “NCM’s integration with iSpot further delivers on our mission to provide our partners the ability to plan and buy premium inventory in a unified manner across all screens, including the coveted big screen," NCM's Manu Singh said.
Analysis Article • Aug 12

National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) Is Reducing Its Dividend To $0.03

National CineMedia, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NCMI ) has announced that on 6th of September, it will be paying a dividend of$0.03...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 07

National CineMedia Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Monday, August 8th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.07 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $65M (+364.3% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, NCMI has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 3 downward.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 06

National CineMedia: A Dividend Trap In A Recovering Industry

NCMI was hit just as hard as theaters during covid, as theaters open, it should return to profitability eventually. Pre covid, this was a decent business with flat revenue but high debt plus dividend heavy policy added risk. Share prices currently offer an almost 10% dividend yield, but this is a classic dividend trap in my view.
Analysis Article • May 13

National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) Will Pay A Smaller Dividend Than Last Year

National CineMedia, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:NCMI ) dividend is being reduced to US$0.03 on the 7th of June. The dividend yield...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:NCMI - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20282981959672
12/31/20272781144524
12/31/2026262451584
1/1/2026243-1138N/A
9/25/2025236-152431N/A
6/26/2025235-202430N/A
3/27/2025238-183742N/A
12/26/2024241-225560N/A
9/26/2024245-234045N/A
6/27/20242081621621N/A
3/28/202416871637N/A
12/28/2023165705-10-7N/A
9/28/2023166688-35-33N/A
6/29/2023196497-5-2N/A
3/30/2023248-49-16-13N/A
12/29/2022249-29-50-47N/A
9/29/2022221-26-43-39N/A
6/30/2022198-32-78-74N/A
3/31/2022145-54-98-94N/A
12/30/2021115-49-101-95N/A
9/30/202167-92-128-123N/A
7/1/202141-90-119-114N/A
4/1/202131-81-34-28N/A
12/31/202090-654755N/A
9/24/2020222-11105116N/A
6/25/202032611179192N/A
3/26/202043334141156N/A
12/26/201944536N/A144N/A
9/26/201943533N/A145N/A
6/27/201943535N/A143N/A
3/28/201943831N/A147N/A
12/27/201844130N/A150N/A
9/27/201844554N/A154N/A
6/28/201845157N/A137N/A
3/29/201843458N/A131N/A
12/28/201742658N/A139N/A
9/28/201742827N/A147N/A
6/29/201742522N/A156N/A
3/30/201744323N/A167N/A
12/29/201644833N/A134N/A
9/29/201644217N/A134N/A
6/30/201644017N/A141N/A
3/31/201644620N/A129N/A
12/31/201544711N/A105N/A
10/1/201543317N/A93N/A
7/2/201542214N/A92N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NCMI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: NCMI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: NCMI is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NCMI's revenue (6.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NCMI's revenue (6.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NCMI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 20:31
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/01/01
Annual Earnings2026/01/01

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

National CineMedia, Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Anthony DiClementeBarclays
Patrick ShollBarrington Research Associates, Inc.
Michael HickeyBenchmark Company