JOYY (NasdaqGS:JOYY): Evaluating Valuation as BIGO Ads Expands Global Reach and Secures Industry Certification

JOYY (NasdaqGS:JOYY) is attracting attention after its BIGO Ads unit achieved five consecutive years of IAB Tech Lab OM SDK certification and participated in DMEXCO 2025, Europe's largest digital marketing event. These moves highlight improved transparency, international growth, and expanding industry influence.

See our latest analysis for JOYY.

After BIGO Ads’ series of wins, JOYY’s recent momentum is clear, with the last 90-day share price return up 15.8%, reflecting renewed optimism around the company’s international advertising growth. Over the past year, JOYY delivered a 0.7% total shareholder return, suggesting the long-term trend is gradually rebounding as the business pivots toward greater transparency and global reach.

If this kind of progress has you curious about what’s moving elsewhere, now could be the perfect time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With JOYY shares climbing nearly 16% in just three months, investors are left to ponder whether this momentum reflects undervaluation and room for upside, or if the market is already pricing in future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 3.2% Overvalued

JOYY’s widely followed narrative sets a fair value of $56.88, which sits just below the last close of $58.71. That slim gap signals analysts see limited upside compared to recent price action and are baking in a very particular set of expectations around margin compression and growth.

The current valuation appears to price in compounding improvements in net margins, as investors expect ongoing advances in AI-driven content recommendation, monetization, and advertising technologies to continually drive higher user engagement, ARPU, and operating efficiency. However, execution and competitive pressures could prevent margin expansion from fully materializing.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the two financial levers that are at the core of this valuation? The narrative hinges on a single-digit growth runway and shrinking profit margins, setting up a lively debate. Who’s right about JOYY’s future potential? The full story reveals what really makes or breaks the price target.

Result: Fair Value of $56.88 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, standout growth in BIGO Ads and strong capital returns could prove the skeptics wrong and drive revenue and margins beyond current analyst forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this JOYY narrative.

Another View: DCF Model Tells a Very Different Story

While analyst price targets suggest JOYY is slightly overvalued, the SWS DCF model delivers a strikingly different perspective. Based on discounted future cash flows, JOYY appears deeply undervalued, with the current share price sitting far below what the model calculates as fair value. Can market sentiment be this far off, or is there a hidden catch?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own JOYY Narrative

If the prevailing narratives do not quite fit your own perspective or you trust your own research most, it takes less than three minutes to craft and share your personalized thesis. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your JOYY research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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